The UK economy has come out of recession, the last of the major economies so to do. Germany and France came out of recession last summer and the USA and Japan followed later in the year. Reversing the last six consecutive quarters of contraction - the worst record since measurement began in 1955 - figures of 0.1% growth in the last 3 months of 2009 were actually weaker than expected.
But there have been recent signs pointing to this. Last week we saw unemployment fall for the first time in 18 months.
How best to summarise this? I would suggest that we should be cautiously optimistic but would still expect 2010 to be a long and difficult year for the UK. Certainly we will see recovery but when you recognise that the pound is still struggling in the markets and the effects of quantitative easing are taken into account, as well as the other government economic and banking support to the country, it is clear that we still have a long way to go.
The fact that we have a General Election on the horizon (possibly 6th May) to look forward to does probably not help. All political parties to some degree or other are suggesting that we will see financial cuts in public sector eexpenditure. So, without trying to scaremonger, is this the spectre of job cuts in the public sector? The private sector took the hits during the last recession and maybe now it is the turn of the public sector.
I think we've got a long way to go yet before we can finally see a real upturn in production, job availabilty and some overall economic stability.
(c) Iain Williamson 26.1.10
But there have been recent signs pointing to this. Last week we saw unemployment fall for the first time in 18 months.
How best to summarise this? I would suggest that we should be cautiously optimistic but would still expect 2010 to be a long and difficult year for the UK. Certainly we will see recovery but when you recognise that the pound is still struggling in the markets and the effects of quantitative easing are taken into account, as well as the other government economic and banking support to the country, it is clear that we still have a long way to go.
The fact that we have a General Election on the horizon (possibly 6th May) to look forward to does probably not help. All political parties to some degree or other are suggesting that we will see financial cuts in public sector eexpenditure. So, without trying to scaremonger, is this the spectre of job cuts in the public sector? The private sector took the hits during the last recession and maybe now it is the turn of the public sector.
I think we've got a long way to go yet before we can finally see a real upturn in production, job availabilty and some overall economic stability.
(c) Iain Williamson 26.1.10
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